Reference-context engagement scorer

One photograph, placed in a measured reference population of 91,810 posts. The instrument reports where it falls and how much its own ensemble disagrees.

What this number is

Predicted engagement for this image posted solo, as the thumbnail, by a standardized account, under this population's revealed preferences, with variables such as page reach, follower count, posting history, carousel position and source compression held fixed.

Without it, a score mostly measures how many followers an account has. The reference context pins every one of them to the same value for every image, so what varies between two scores is the photograph.

What it is not

Not an objective measure of anything.
It reports one population's revealed engagement behaviour. That is a fact about the population, not a fact about the person in the photograph.

How much to trust one number

The ensemble band is typically wide, a median of 39 percentile points between the lowest and highest member. The band is shown at the same weight as the estimate because it is the same size as the estimate.